All posts by Tyler Vesely

Midway Review of the AP Top 25

We are over half way through the College Football season and other than Alabama, I have no idea who is good. The final games late in the season should make the playoff and bowl picture more clear. But taking into account what has already happened this season here are a few problems I have with the AP top 25 rankings:

  1. No love for Notre Dame

I’ve been talking about how underrated Notre Dame is for the past few weeks. The “usually most overrated” program in college football has been far under the radar after their 4-8 season. The rest of the country is finally starting to pick-up after their beat down of USC.

Still, Notre Dame should be ranked higher than 9. Josh Adams RB Notre DameThe only loss was a one-point game at home against, in my opinion, the second best team in the nation Georgia. They’ve also blown out every other team they’ve faced including USC. I think there is a case for Notre Dame to be ranked as high as number five and if they beat NC State this weekend, they should absolutely be a top 5 team. This includes being ranked over teams like Wisconsin and Miami who have yet to face a solid opponent.

Ohio State being ranked above Notre Dame makes absolutely no sense. This brings me to point number 2.

2. Ohio State ranked way too high

Apparently if you get blown out at home, all you have to do is play UNLV, Army, Rutgers, Maryland and Nebraska then everyone will forget. Ohio State has only beaten one team with a winning record and that team was Army.

What is even crazier is they are ranked above Oklahoma, THE TEAM THAT BEAT THEM IN THEIR HOUSE BY 18 POINTS. I know Oklahoma hasn’t been playing their best football, but the College Football playoff committee has proven time and time again that when two teams have a similar resume, head to head is very important. Yet, Oklahoma is ranked 10 and Ohio State is all the way up to 6.

Clemson has beaten top 25 teams Virginia Tech and Auburn, but for some reason voters have Ohio State ranked higher. A win against Penn State will be a major resume booster, but for now they have nowhere near the credentials to be ranked 6th.

3. Georgia has a better resume than Penn State and TCU

I don’t have as big a problem with this because their resumes are so close, but I believe Georgia should be the number 2 ranked team. Georgia has the best win out of anybody in the country, a win on the road against Notre Dame. They also have a blow-out win against a fringe top 25 team Mississippi State. Other than the Notre Dame game, they’ve blown out everyone.

Penn State had an impressive win against Michigan, but they’re not even a top 25 team. And that is their best win. Nick ChubbOther than that it has been mostly blowouts other than a close 2-point win over Iowa. I wouldn’t consider moving them up to number 2 unless they beat Ohio State this week.

Finally, TCU is undefeated with a decent resume. Their best win is at Oklahoma State and also have a top 25 win against West Virginia. They’ve won the games they needed to win by a decent margin. Honestly they even have a better resume than Penn State right now, but not a better resume than Georgia.

4. Can someone explain to me how LSU is ranked

I swear, voters have the memory of a gold fish. The month of September LSU lost by 30 points to Mississippi State and also lost to Troy. A win against Auburn has made everyone forget about this. How are you going to rank LSU in the top 25, but not Mississippi State when they beat LSU in Death Valley by 30? The Auburn win is nice, but it does not erase the terrible month of September.

5. UCF has a better resume than USF

This is where voters cling onto their preseason rankings and don’t take a fresh look at the resumes. South Florida has not played a team with more than 3 wins and their opponents overall record is 13-33. They beat an average Tulane team this past weekend by only 6 points.

UCF is the exact opposite. UCF FootballThey smoked 24th ranked Memphis by 27 points and also beat a good Navy team by 10 points this past weekend. Ranking South Florida above UCF is idiotic and shouldn’t even be a discussion at this point.

The good news is both teams play each other at the end of the year which could decide who goes to a New Year’s Six bowl.

 

Here is how I would vote the top 25:

1. Alabama

2. Georgia

3. TCU

4. Penn State

5. Wisconsin

6. Notre Dame

7. Miami

8. Clemson

9. Oklahoma

10. Ohio State

11. Virginia Tech

12. Oklahoma State

13. NC State

14. Washington

15. UCF

16. Washington State

17. Michigan State

18. West Virginia

19. Auburn

20. South Florida

21. Texas A&M

22. USC

23. Stanford

24. Iowa St.

25. Mississippi State

 

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Week 2 College Football Picks

Tyler Vesely’s Season Record: 7-4

A lot of Road Underdogs and Over picks in week 2. Here are the picks:

Best Bet of the Week

South Carolina +3 @ Mizzou

South Carolina beat a good NC State team. Missouri’s defense is garbage and gives up a ton of points. I think South Carolina actually wins by double digits. Easy Money.

Friday Night Game

Oklahoma State @ South Alabama, Over 67

Oklahoma State can put up points… they also can give up a decent amount of points. South Alabama scored 27 points against Ole Miss, which means if they do the same Oklahoma State just has to score 40 points. The over is the right pick here.

Saturday Games

Oklahoma +7½ @ Ohio State

Ohio State’s secondary is not good, but they do have a good defensive line. However, Oklahoma has one of the most elusive quarterback and one of the best offensive line in the country. I think it is a close game the Oklahoma ends up winning in Columbus.

Stanford +6 @ USC, Over 55

USC will score points and Stanford showed by putting up 62 points the first week they can too. USC did not look great the first week and Stanford is getting 6 points? Give me the over and Stanford.

Clemson @ Auburn, Over 54

Clemson’s quarterback showed me enough in the first game that this team will still score points. Auburn will move fast too and has a new, very good quarterback in Jarrett Stidham. I am expecting a close 35-30 game that could go either way.

Georgia +6 @ Notre Dame

6 points??? Yes please. I get Georgia won’t have Eason , but Jacob Fromm did decent in the first week. The Georgia defense also held an underrated Appalachian State offense to just ten points. I think this is a game that Georgia actually wins. Georgia and give me the points too.

Minnesota +2 @ Oregon State

It worries me Minnesota traveling to Oregon State, but the Beavers are just not good. They squeaked by last week in a 3 point win over Portland State. I’m Rowing the Boat with Coach Fleck and saying Minnesota will bounce back after an unimpressive performance against Buffalo.

Iowa -2½ @ Iowa State

Iowa pummels Iowa State every year. Think this year is closer, but Iowa still wins more than a touchdown.

Louisville @ North Carolina Over 62½

Lamar Jackson and the Louisville offense will put up a lot of points. North Carolina put up 30 points last week against Cal and the Louisville defense didn’t do so great against Purdue. I think it ends up being a 42-31 game with Louisville winning.

Week 1 College Football Recap

A lot of teams aren’t who we thought they were. It was a wild ride in week one with 34 point comebacks, major upsets and dominant teams remaining dominant. Texas may not be back, but College Football definitely is.

Here is a look at my top 25:

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Oklahoma
4. Ohio State
5. Penn State
6. Oklahoma State
7. USC
8. Florida State
9. Auburn
10. Georgia
11. Michigan
12. Wisconsin
13. LSU
14. Stanford
15. Washington
16. Kansas State
17. Miami
18. Louisville
19. Virginia Tech
20. South Carolina
21. Maryland
22. Notre Dame
23. Washington State
24. UCLA
25. Tennessee

WEEK 1 HEADLINES

Alabama Remains on top

It’s scary, but this Alabama defense looks like it is going to be just as good as last year. They were flying all around the field on Saturday night. Ronnie and HarrisThis Alabama defense keys in more blitzes than last year since they don’t have Ryan Anderson or Tim Williams getting to the quarterback from the edge. To avoid an upset, the offense has to be better particularly in the passing game. To be fair, this Florida State defense is a top defense in the nation.

Texas is Back (To not being that good)

The Texas hype train got out of control again and crashed in the first week. Maryland over TexasTexas was 19 point favorites against Maryland, which had a better record and recruiting class than Texas last year. The defense continues to be bad. They gave up 263 yards on the ground on 43 carries. Not a good look for a team that plays in an offense-heavy Big 12. If Texas plays like they did on Saturday, it will be tough for them to reach 6-6.

Should Kevin Sumlin be Fired?

The coaching was just plain awful for Texas A&M on Sunday. Up 44-10 in the third quarter, the Aggies were still running the hurry up offense. SumlinThey continued to throw the ball with a true freshman quarterback instead of handing it to Trayveon Williams and Keith Ford who were collectively averaging almost 8 yards a carry. It may be one of the biggest collapses I have ever seen.

As for Sumlin being fired, not yet. Over the last four seasons the Aggies have finished 4th, 6th, 5th, and 4th… IN THE SEC WEST. The whole “Aggies taking over the SEC” was as big a myth as Johnny Football being a successful NFL quarterback. I think the Aggies fire Sumlin after the season and put their hat in the Chip Kelly race.

Oklahoma and Ohio State Game of the Week

In week 2, Oklahoma travels to Columbus to try and avenge last year’s take down.

Oklahoma ohio StateI am also changing my pick after watching Ohio State in week 1. Ohio State’s secondary is hot garbage right now and the only thing protecting them is their stout defensive line. But Oklahoma has one of the best offensive lines in the nation. I think Oklahoma’s line can give Baker Mayfield time to move around and pick that defense apart. I was also unimpressed with Ohio State’s passing game, as that continues to be their Achilles heel. Oklahoma wins by a touchdown.

Baylor losing to Liberty

Baylor’s defense was mostly an unknown going into the season especially since they were starting two sophomore cornerbacks. Liberty over BaylorWell it is known now that they are not very good. They gave up 447 passing yards to LIBERTY. Seriously a team that went 6-5 in FCS play last year. Baylor has gone from a projected middle Big 12 team to the bottom of the league. Maybe Matt Rhule should have stayed at Temple…

NC State and South Carolina

I was all in on NC State and that took a hit after Saturday.

SC NC

However, I think this is a case where both teams were underrated to start the year and both will finish in the top 25. It reminds me of when Michigan and Utah played their opening game against each other in 2015. Both teams were unranked and both finished the season 10-3.Now I’m not saying these two Carolina schools will be that good, but I think it was an underrated matchup and ended up being a great game.

Charlie Strong’s South Florida Team Disappoints

I really liked South Florida going into the season, but now I don’t even think they are the favorites in the American conference. They have had two extremely slow starts against San Jose State and Stony Brook. They were only up by a touchdown on Stony Brook late in the fourth quarter. An easy schedule is the only thing going for them right now. From what I have seen so far, this is not a top 25 football team.Flowers

Week 1 College Football Bets

COLLEGE FOOTBALL IS BACK! Here are my 10 bets of the week:

 

Best Bet of the Week

South Carolina vs. NC State (-5)

I’m all in on NC State finishing as a top 15 team in the nation. And do you know what Top 15 teams do? They beat the Gamecocks by double digits. A returning quarterback and one of the best defensive lines in the nation is the reason. I think South Carolina does have a talented football team, but the national media is not paying close enough attention to this Wolfpack team.

Thursday Night Games

Tulsa at Oklahoma State (-18) , Over 70

Oklahoma State is a Big 12 favorite. They return most of the offense and will put up a lot of points this year. Tulsa has lost a lot of starters from last year and the 18 points should be covered easily by Oklahoma State.

The one question about Oklahoma State is their defense. Phillip Montgomery (Tulsa’s coach) loves to go fast and put up points. I’m expecting a 49-24 high scoring affair on Thursday night.

Ohio State (-21) at Indiana

Ohio State is loaded with talent and Indiana looks to be a bottom feeder in the Big Ten. Last year Ohio State beat Rutgers, Nebraska and Maryland by an average of 59 points. This year’s Ohio State team should be better than last year and should cover easily.

Saturday Games

Alabama (-7) vs. Florida State, Over 49

These are two teams that can score. People don’t realize Alabama almost averaged 40 points per game last year. Florida State averaged 33 ppg including 33 points against a tough Michigan defense. Take the over.

I never question taking Saban in opening kickoff games. I know Florida State is good, but Saban is 10-0 at Bama in opening games. Additionally, he has outscored opponents 412-120 and has won every game by double-digits. Trust Saban.

Maryland (+19) at Texas

Texas is talented, but giving 19 points to a team that didn’t make a bowl game? Don’t get me wrong, Texas wins this game. But Maryland is talented too with a top 25 recruiting class coming in. Maryland will keep it close and cover.

Gators (+3.5) vs. Michigan Over 45.5

I know Florida has most of their roster suspended for this game, but I think Michigan is getting too much preseason buzz. I see a 9 win team that has a lot to replace on defense. I think Florida is the more talented team and should take care of business in Dallas.

As for the over, Michigan lost 11 defensive players to the NFL. To expect this defense to be just as good as last year is insane. 45.5 is a low line and the Gators will have enough offense. I’m expecting a close 31-28 game.

Vanderbilt (-3.5) at MTSU

Vanderbilt is looking like a 6-6 SEC team… I’m betting for a bowl eligible SEC team to beat Middle Tennessee State by more than a touchdown every time.

Appalachian State at Georgia, Over 46

Appalachian State has a sneaky good offense. I really like the Georgia defense, but I still think the Mountaineers will put up points. Georgia’s offense will be improved as well. Expect a 31-20 type game.

Sleeper College Football Teams

It happens every year. A team comes out of nowhere and finishes the season in the AP Top Ten Rankings. Last year, we saw Washington make the playoffs as well as Penn State winning the Big Ten and making the Rose Bowl. The most difficult thing is identifying these teams who could make a run into the top ten. Baker and SidneyLooking into final AP poll data from the last 7 years and other similar characteristics helps us identify the potential teams that could finish inside the top ten.

Six out of the seven years since 2010, at least three teams have finished in the AP poll top ten after not finishing in the top 25 the previous year. 2011 was the only exception where USC was the one team that met that criteria. In 2016, there were three teams (USC, Washington and Penn State). In 2012, 2013, and 2015 four teams finished in the top ten despite not being in the top 25 before. The following is the full list of the teams (Rank in Parenthesis):

2010: Auburn (1), Stanford (4), and Wisconsin (7)

2011: USC (6)

2012: Ohio State (3), Notre Dame (4), Texas A&M (6), and Florida (9)

2013: Auburn (2), Michigan State (3), Missouri (5), and Central Florida (10)

2014: TCU (3), Georgia Tech (8), and Georgia (9)

2015: Stanford (3), Oklahoma (5), Houston (8), and Iowa (9)

2016: USC (3), Washington (4), and Penn State (7)

It is an occurence that happens almost every year. So who are the possible teams to do it this year? There are a few key factors that go into determining the potential teams:

The Process

We start with 43 possible Power 5 teams that did not finish in the AP top 25 the previous year. The list gets cut almost in half after the first two rules based on recruiting rankings:

Rule 1- Four year recruiting average must be less than 60 or eliminated from consideration.

Out of all the top ten Power 5 conference teams and the teams that made the jump from unranked to top ten, none have had a Recruiting Ranking Average over 60. 2014 Georgia Tech had the highest recruiting ranking with a 57 average (As you will see later that Georgia Tech team was a major outlier to normal top ten finishers).

Rule 2- Must have a recruiting ranking of less than 35 for the senior class or the senior class ranking must be the highest of the four classes. If neither are the case, must have at least one top 30 class in the last 4 years or else eliminated.

This is where it gets a little complicated, but the explanation is simple. Teams that normally don’t recruit well must have a strong senior class. All of the teams that finished in the top ten after making the top 25 the year before, fit this same mold. 2016 Washington, 2014 TCU and 2013 Michigan State are the best examples of teams who normally didn’t recruit well, but had a strong senior class recruiting ranking. All of these teams not only finished in the top ten, but they finished in the top 4. You can get away with not having a high ranking senior class if you’ve had at least one top 30 class.

The Results so far:

SEC

2017

2016

2015

2014

4 YR AVG

1

Georgia

5

8

5

8

6.5

2

Texas A&M

12

18

11

5

11.5

3

Ole Miss

30

5

17

15

16.75

4

South Carolina

21

25

20

19

21.25

5

Arkansas

27

23

22

29

25.25

6

Mississippi State

24

28

18

35

26.25

7

Kentucky

29

33

38

22

30.5

8

Missouri

42

43

25

39

37.25

9

Vanderbilt

64

54

49

46

53.25

Big Ten

2017

2016

2015

2014

4 YR AVG

1

Michigan State

34

17

22

26

24.75

2

Nebraska

23

26

30

35

28.5

3

Maryland

18

42

47

41

37

4

Northwestern

50

52

54

47

50.75

5

Iowa

41

47

60

59

51.75

6

Indiana

63

53

53

48

54.25

7

Rutgers

43

64

57

56

55

8

Minnesota

58

46

63

57

56

9

Illinois

45

73

48

72

59.5

10

Purdue

72

80

67

70

72.25

ACC

2017

2016

2015

2014

4 YR AVG

1

North Carolina

31

35

28

31

31.25

2

Pittsburgh

37

30

46

44

39.25

3

North Carolina State

52

50

31

34

41.75

4

Duke

48

32

55

60

48.75

5

Virginia

57

63

50

33

50.75

6

Georgia Tech

47

60

44

56

51.75

7

Syracuse

54

62

56

52

56

8

Wake Forest

67

57

51

67

60.5

9

Boston College

66

78

60

51

63.75

Pac-12

2017

2016

2015

2014

4 YR AVG

1

UCLA

20

13

12

18

15.75

2

Oregon

19

27

16

21

20.75

3

Arizona State

35

24

20

23

25.5

4

Arizona

44

48

43

30

41.25

5

Cal

73

31

34

55

48.25

6

Washington State

46

56

42

53

49.25

7

Oregon State

51

58

61

60

57.5

Big 12

2017

2016

2015

2014

4 YR AVG

1

Texas

26

6

10

17

14.75

2

TCU

28

22

42

43

33.75

3

Baylor

40

41

36

26

35.75

4

Texas Tech

49

44

32

40

41.25

5

Iowa State

53

55

64

58

57.5

6

Kansas State

60

72

55

49

59

7

Kansas

69

71

73

50

65.75

IND

2017

2016

2015

2014

4 YR AVG

1

Notre Dame

10

15

13

11

12.25

 

Now we are down to 26 teams… Next is returning starters

Rule 3- Must have at least 13 total starters returning or else eliminated from consideration. (2014 Georgia Tech as the outlier)

You may hear that returning starters is an overrated statistic for a football team. Looking at the Power 5 teams that made a run from unranked to Top 10, there is a correlation:

Team

Offense

Defense

Total

2016 USC

10

6

16

2016 Washington

9

7

16

2016 Penn State

9

6

15

2015 Stanford

11

4

15

2015 Oklahoma

7

6

13

2015 Iowa

7

8

15

2014 TCU

8

8

16

2014 Georgia Tech

5

5

10

2014 Georgia

6

9

15

2013 Auburn

6

9

15

2013 Michigan State

8

7

15

2013 Missouri

8

6

14

2012 Ohio State

9

10

19

2012 Notre Dame

8

7

15

2012 Texas A&M

9

8

17

2012 Florida

8

10

18

2011 USC

6

7

13

2010 Auburn

7

8

15

2010 Stanford

8

6

14

2010 Wisconsin

10

6

16

Average

7.95

7.15

15.10

Out of all the teams, 2014 Georgia Tech was the only team that didn’t return at least 13 starters. We are going to treat that team as them as an outlier.

So out of the teams we have left we can eliminate more from the list:

SEC

Offense

Defense

Total

1

Georgia

5

10

15

2

Texas A&M

5

6

11

3

Ole Miss

5

6

11

4

South Carolina

10

6

16

5

Arkansas

6

6

12

6

Mississippi State

6

6

12

7

Kentucky

8

8

16

8

Vanderbilt

8

7

15

Big Ten

Offense

Defense

Total

1

Michigan State

2

3

5

2

Nebraska

5

7

12

3

Maryland

6

6

12

4

Northwestern

8

7

15

5

Indiana

5

9

14

ACC

Offense

Defense

Total

1

North Carolina

6

6

12

2

North Carolina State

8

8

16

3

Virginia

5

8

13

4

Syracuse

9

10

19

Pac-12

Offense

Defense

Total

1

UCLA

7

5

12

2

Oregon

7

8

16

3

Arizona State

7

8

15

4

Arizona

6

7

13

Big 12

Offense

Defense

Total

1

Texas

5

10

15

2

TCU

8

7

15

3

Baylor

5

5

10

4

Kansas State

7

6

13

IND

Offense

Defense

Total

1

Notre Dame

8

7

15

That leaves us with 16 eligible teams for an average of three spots in the Final AP Top Ten. Here is the list ranking by returning starters and recruiting rankings:

Offense

Defense

Total

1

Syracuse

9

10

19

2

South Carolina

10

6

16

3

Kentucky

8

8

16

4

Oregon

7

8

16

5

North Carolina State

8

8

16

6

Texas

6

10

16

7

Georgia

5

10

15

8

Vanderbilt

8

7

15

9

Arizona State

7

8

15

10

Northwestern

8

7

15

11

Notre Dame

8

7

15

12

TCU

8

7

15

13

Indiana

5

9

14

14

Kansas State

7

6

13

15

Arizona

6

7

13

16

Virginia

5

8

13

2017

2016

2015

2014

4 YR AVG

1

Georgia

5

8

5

8

6.5

2

Notre Dame

10

15

13

11

12.25

3

Texas

26

6

10

17

14.75

4

Oregon

19

27

16

21

20.75

5

South Carolina

21

25

20

19

21.25

6

Arizona State

35

24

20

23

25.5

7

Kentucky

29

33

38

22

30.5

8

TCU

28

22

42

43

33.75

9

Arizona

44

48

43

30

41.25

10

North Carolina State

52

50

31

34

41.75

11

Virginia

57

63

50

33

50.75

12

Northwestern

50

52

54

47

50.75

13

Vanderbilt

64

54

49

46

53.25

14

Indiana

63

53

53

48

54.25

15

Syracuse

54

62

56

52

56

16

Kansas State

60

72

55

49

59

Sleeper Teams

Based on the data and looking at the actual teams, here are my predictions for the three teams to finish in the AP Top Ten after finishing unranked last year:

1. Georgia

I think this is the most obvious of the choices. Georgia Tech v GeorgiaGeorgia showed they were talented last year and return almost their entire defense. Add to that a quarterback returning from a decent Freshman season and you have a top ten team. Look for Georgia to compete for the SEC East and end up finishing in the top ten.

2. North Carolina State

The not so obvious choice. NC StateNorth Carolina State returns 16 starters and has one of the best defensive lines in the nation. This was also a team that lost to Florida State by 4 points and took Clemson into Overtime. Their tough schedule could make it difficult, but North Carolina State has the talent to compete for the ACC Championship Game and could finish the year in the top ten.

3. Kansas State

I know they’re ranked low in the returning starters and recruiting rankings, but this is a talented team. Jess ErtzThis could be one of Bill Snyder’s best offensive teams with Jesse Ertz coming back. The defense needs to replace the linebackers, but are strong upfront and in the secondary. They have an easier non-conference schedule and could upset some teams in the Big 12. This is a darkhorse to win the Big 12 and potential top ten team.

 

Tyler Vesely

Twitter- @nfldraftscout

Best College Football Prop Bets

It’s officially College Football betting season. Each week I will post 8-10 bets for the week  including a best bet of the week. This week will be prop bets before the season starts:

Best Bet of the Week

Kansas Over 3 (-115)

My favorite college prop bet. Kansas starts the season with Southeast Missouri, Central Michigan and Ohio. That should be 3 wins right there! Which means they only have to win one Big 12 game to cash the ticket. Worst case scenario- they don’t win a Big 12 game and it’s a push. This should be an improved Kansas team who will pull an upset or two.

Regular Season Wins Prop Bets

Oklahoma State Over 9 (-125)

This is a team that is a favorite to win the Big 12. They have a dynamic offense returning with Mason Rudolph, Justice Hill and James Washington. 9-3 should be the minimum. The non-conference isn’t too tough with only Pittsburgh as the possible loss. If they finish 3-0 in non-conference, 7-2 will get them to 10-2 and the over.

NC State Over 7.5 (-105)

The Wolfpack are going to be good this year. They have one of the top defensive lines in the country and a ton of returning starters. I can honestly see NC State finishing as a top ten team. They should have beaten Clemson last year and will be improved. The schedule is tricky with Florida State, Louisville, Notre Dame and Clemson. But they should pull an upset  or two out of those games and finish at worst 8-4.

Maryland Over 3.5 (-155)

Only 3.5 games?? Maryland is not great, but is a team that is more than capable of 4 wins. Especially considering they went 6-7 last year and had a top 20 recruiting class. They do have tough games against Texas, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan and Penn State. However four wins out of Towson, UCF, Minnesota, Northwestern, Indiana, Rutgers and Michigan State should be manageable.

Texas Tech Under 5.5 -(130)

Their non-conference schedule is brutal. They could conceivably be 0-3 after Eastern Washington, Arizona State and Houston. If they go the likely 1-2 in non-conference play, they would have to finish 5-4 in the Big 12 in order to meet the over. Even 4-5 in the Big 12 is unlikely.  The easy bet is the under.

TCU Under 7.5 (+120)

You even get odds here. Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Texas and Oklahoma are the likely loses. They could also lose to West Virginia, Texas Tech or Baylor. A team that finished 6-7 last year with an inconsistent quarterback has 7-5 written all over it.

Georgia Over 8.5 (-145)

Georgia is the best team in the SEC East. They also avoid playing Alabama and LSU from the SEC West. Notre Dame is their toughest non-conference opponent, but the schedule is definitely manageable. Auburn and Florida are tough opponents, but even if they lose both they would have to lose two more games for the over not to hit. 10-2 or 9-3 is likely.

Mississippi State Over 5.5 (-155)

The Bulldogs will be bowl eligible. They have a young talented defense with one of the better quarterbacks in the SEC. They should be 4-0 in non-conference with their toughest competition being BYU. After non-conference play, they would just need two wins from Kentucky, Texas A&M, Arkansas and Ole Miss. LSU, Georgia, Auburn and Alabama are likely losses, but this team is too talented not to be bowl eligible.

Stats Prop Bet

Jake Browning Under 3200.5 Yards Passing (-120)

First off Jake Browning didn’t throw for over 3200 yards last year in the regular season. He finished with 3,162 yards. Add to the fact that they lose John Ross and have two very talented runners with Myles Gaskin and Lavon Coleman, I think he barely gets to 3,000 yards. There is also another secret out there that nobody talks about… Jake Browning isn’t that talented of a passer. He has decent accuracy, but lacks arm strength. This isn’t a guy that is going to throw for 3,500 yards. There is also the risk he gets injured. I don’t root for injuries, but it is a factor you have to consider when betting the Over/Under on statistics. Injury risk, more reliance on the run game and the top wide receiver gone is why I am all in on under 3200 passing yards.

 

Top 5 White Cornerbacks Today

Dinosaurs, sabre-toothed tigers and starting white NFL cornerbacks… three creatures that have gone extinct. Jason SehornA white cornerback has not started at the position in the NFL since Jason Sehorn in 2003, making this the 17th consecutive NFL season without a starting white cornerback. The last time we even got a glimpse of a white cornerback was Julian Edelman playing some emergency nickel late in the 2011 season.

This phenomenon isn’t only in the NFL. College Football also has a severe lack of white cornerbacks. This upcoming year, there are only two white cornerbacks that will see significant time in the entire FBS.

So who will be the next white cornerback in the NFL? I took on the task of finding and ranking the top white corners in football today. Will one of these be the next white man to start at corner in the NFL? Probably not, but here is the list anyways:

1. Anthony Cioffi, Oakland Raiders

CioffiCioffi started five games at corner during his freshman year at Rutgers and five games during his sophomore year. Going into his junior year, Rutgers decided to ruin everything and switch him to safety. Cioffi went on to start 23 games during his last two seasons finishing his Rutgers career with 168 tackles and 8 interceptions. Cioffi still has a cornerback history so if he makes the team and a few cornerbacks go down, he has the best chance out of anyone to become the first white corner in a very long time. (Update: Cioffi was waived by the Raiders on September 2, 2017).

2. Micah Hannemann, BYUHanneman

Hannemann started his career at cornerback, but BYU ignored the chance to make history and decided to switch him to safety. He is referred to as one of the fastest guys on the team, but just like Cioffi, he will need to make the switch back to corner in the NFL if he wants to end the streak. Going into his senior year, he has started 25 games and has 3 interceptions. Hannemann is 24 years old as he went on a missionary for two years during his time at BYU. He should get a shot as a late round draft pick or an undrafted free agent in the NFL.

3. Justus Parker, Texas Tech

Justus

Finally, a player that actually currently plays cornerback. Parker enters his redshirt sophomore year after sitting out a year due to being a transfer student. He spent his freshman year starting at corner for Division III Texas Lutheran. It was there where he played against tough opponents like Sul Ross State and Southwestern Assemblies of God. After earning All-SCAC honors he decided to transfer to Texas Tech. He currently is second on the depth chart at the nickel corner position.

4. Ethan Bonner, Woodlands High School (Northwestern Commit)

Bonner

Yes. The fourth best white cornerback in the world is in high school. Bonner is a three-star recruit with ten scholarship offers including Power 5 teams Stanford, Iowa State, Washington State and Northwestern, where he is currently committed. Bonner also runs track and has been timed in the 40-yard dash at 4.55. Let’s hope Northwestern doesn’t ruin the dream by switching him to safety.

5. Evan Chadbourn, Lehigh

Chadbourne had led his team in rushing with over 2,300 yards in their 2015 Pennsylvania Class A state championsChadbournehip season. Going into the 2016 season, the Altoona, Pennsylvania native from Bishop Guilfoyle was offered a walk-on offer from Penn State. The best part? Penn State wanted him as a cornerback! Unfortunately, that summer he tore his ACL. He had 22 offers to play with the only FBS offers being from Temple, Navy and Air Force. Chadbourne ended up committing to Lehigh where he will most likely stay at running back.

 

Well there you have it, the top five white cornerbacks in the world. Let me know if I missed any. As you can probably tell, it is tough to find white cornerbacks.

Twitter: @nfldraftfever